TALKING POINTS – BREXIT, US SENTIMENT SURVEY, EUROZONE CPI
- Home of Commons voted Brexit extension
- US Dollar ready for key sentiment information
- EUR/USD will likely be watching Eurozone CPI
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GBP has had a really risky week following main Brexit-related developments. Let’s do a fast re-cap:
March 12 – Prime Minister Theresa Might’s Brexit deal is voted down and GBP fell.
March 13 – A vote on a no-deal consequence is held and passes – the Pound rose.
March 14 – Lawmakers voted to increase the March 29 Brexit deadline – Sterling closed decrease and merchants groaned from the prospect of continued uncertainty
The EU said that an extension could be granted if the UK is ready to adequately justify a purpose to take action and would require the unanimous consent of all 27 EU member states. Policymakers from each side are starting to lose their persistence and are displaying clear indicators of exhaustion. The ball is now within the EU’s court docket, although they too have too trod rigorously lest they lose extra political clout during a time Brussels desperately needs it.
The Swiss Franc continues to outperform in opposition to the Euro and Pound as regional uncertainty continues to stir haven demand. Merchants’ desire for CHF on this regard vs the Japanese Yen or US Greenback could also be as a result of Franc’s proximity to the European-based occasion danger. To learn extra about upcoming EU developments and their impact on European property, you could comply with me on Twitter at ZabelinDimitri.
Within the EU, Eurozone CPI will likely be revealed and will push the Euro decrease if the information underperforms. Regional growth trends counsel a tilt towards underperformance is extra probably than not. This comes amid fresh new fears of an EU-US trade conflict following a failed assembly between commerce representatives from both sides final week. This could apply downward stress on EUR/USD proper because it approaches a key resistance barrier.
Including to the EU docket, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will likely be giving a speech on a nationwide vacation and will reveal a few of his plans for the upcoming European Parliamentary election within the spring. EU officers are starting to chunk their nails as Eurosceptic events acquire floor in Europe whereas recognition for Europhile liberals wane. Click on on the hyperlink to be taught extra in regards to the effect of Eurozone political risk on the Euro.
On the opposite aspect of the Atlantic, US sentiment information from the College of Michigan is scheduled to be launched which is able to present perception on how customers really feel in regards to the financial outlook. Forecasts are at present pegged at 95.7 with the report in January hitting the bottom level since November 2016. This proceeded the federal government shutdown which trimmed GDP progress and impacted the Fed’s outlook for financial coverage.
CHART OF THE DAY: 2-YEAR UK GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS, CHF/EUR
Be aware: Euro-Franc crosses are sometimes quoted as EUR/CHF.
FX TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Forex Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the feedback part beneath or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter