Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I belief everybody that celebrates Easter, had a grand day, it was in all probability one of many nicest days, weather-wise, for Easter that we’ve had right here shortly… Merely lovely, as was Saturday too… I broke in my Massive Inexperienced Egg on Saturday, it took me a few hours to get it able to prepare dinner in… How about our Blues! What an exciting recreation 5 win with 15 seconds left within the recreation, after which a pure hat trick by Jaden Schwartz in a Sport 6, sequence successful recreation! On to the second spherical! We despatched Alex off to his house the subsequent 10 weeks in Montgomery Ala, for medical work. He texted us final night time that he made it… 9 hours drive, alone for the primary time… OK… the band Sure, greets me this morning with their track: Rhythm Of Love…
A lot for when Chuck’s away the currencies rally, eh? Final Thursday and Friday had been terrible days for the currencies… As Retail Gross sales, on the surface, had been stronger in March than anticipated, as they rose 1.6%, and ex-autos rose 1.2%… However there was one thing attention-grabbing within the report that the media did not uncover, and subsequently the markets went bananas over the energy of the report, and that “one thing ” is healthier defined by economist David Rosenberg on his Twitter deal with…
“Robust March for retail gross sales however have a look at your complete first quarter. All the way down to +0.2% SAAR from 1% in This autumn, 4.3% in Q3 and 6.1% in Q2. REAL gross sales in Q1 had been -0.7% and adopted -0.5% in This autumn, first again to again contraction for the reason that first half of 2009.”
Chuck Once more… Hmmm… Makes you go Hmmm, doesn’t it? This certain paints a special image of the report than the markets swallowed hook, line and sinker… Again to again quarters of unfavorable Gross sales… Hmmm….
The value of Oil has moved upward and previous the $65 deal with once more within the final 24 hours, because it seems the U.S. goes to drop the Iranian waivers come Could 2nd… These waivers are in place for international locations that import Iranian oil, so in the event that they get dropped on Could 2nd, then financial sanctions would go into place for the international locations that import Iranian Oil… Very attention-grabbing, eh?
And did you see the article within the WSJ this previous weekend? Now, how can the markets ignore this… The article was speaking about what would make the Fed heads resolve to chop charges… Right here’s the headline from the WSJ: “Federal Reserve officers are beginning to discuss concerning the situations below which they’d minimize rates of interest, together with a situation the place inflation drifts decrease even when the financial development doesn’t falter.”
Chuck once more… Didn’t see the foremost media retailers discuss this? After all you didn’t!
Simply once I thought it was secure to return to Twitter and see what economists are saying once more… I used to be hit with this Twitter feed by Fred Hickey, who retweeted a put up from Jesse Felder, of The Felder Report.com who talked about what could possibly be the largest factor on the market that he fears essentially the most proper now, and it isn’t simply the variety of brief positions within the VIX (volatility index) however the variety of leveraged 2x the brief in VIX… That’s loopy people… That is what I might name “excessive positioning” and places their threat manner out on the limb… I’m with these two guys who say that is scary… One thing to consider for certain!
Nicely… issues aren’t that rosy all over the world both people… Whereas China printed some higher than the typical bear knowledge final week, it nonetheless wasn’t what you’ll name, an indication of renewed International Progress, and like I mentioned final week, I doubt this is sufficient to sluggish the momentum of the International slowdown. And in Germany final week, they didn’t print robust knowledge… When you’ve China, the U.S., Japan, and Germany all having issues producing financial development, you may as properly decide up the telephone and name Houston… Howdy, Houston, we have now an issue…
And Gold… Nicely not less than this morning within the early buying and selling Gold is up nearly $4… However it was a wild and whacky week for the shiny steel final week… for certain! Gold a misplaced a number of floor, and the salami slicers, (as Ed Steer calls them) Had been working time beyond regulation to push the value of Gold downward and away from any transferring averages that had been on the market. I simply do not know what’s occurring right here, people… It could possibly be a few issues in play right here… 1. The promoting of Gold to pay for margin calls is already occurring… (I doubt that however who is aware of proper now? 2. The Boys within the Band cannot cease what they began a few weeks in the past, when Gold seemed prefer it was able to take out the so-called maginot line of $1,350… (in all probability extra doubtless) or 3. I don’t know… (in all probability the most certainly! HA!)
The U.S. Information Cabinet begins the week very slowly with housing knowledge Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is no knowledge scheduled to print. So we cannot be coping with knowledge till Thursday when March Sturdy and CAPEX Items Orders will print… Recall these had been unfavorable in Feb… I really anticipate each of those to be unfavorable once more in March… I went on and on about CAPEX a few weeks in the past, when you missed class that day, might I recommend you merely go to www.dailypfennig.com and browse the archives…
To recap… It was a bizarre response by the forex merchants to the U.S. Retail Gross sales knowledge final week, and the greenback bought on the rally tracks and hauled rear down the tracks, taking bits and items from all of the currencies… Even the Petrol Currencies did not get to rally alongside the value of Oil the place the news of a drop of the Iranian waivers bought the value of Oil on the rally tracks. Germany prints some very weak knowledge late final week, and feeds into Chuck’s considered a International Slowdown, led by the U.S. for, the U.S., China, Japan, and Germany are all having a lot problem producing financial development.
Or, right here’s your snippet: “If the U.S. financial system is in fine condition, why have retailers already shuttered extra shops than they did in all of 2018? Not solely that, we’re additionally on tempo to utterly shatter the all-time report for retailer closures in a single yr by greater than 50 p.c.
Sure, Web commerce is rising, however the Web has been round for a number of many years now. It isn’t as if this menace simply instantly materialized.
As Web commerce continues to slowly broaden, we’d anticipate to see a gentle drip of brick and mortar shops shut, however as a substitute what we’re witnessing is an avalanche. If the U.S. financial system actually was “booming”, this wouldn’t be occurring. But when the U.S. financial system was heading right into a recession, that is exactly what we’d anticipate to see.
Final yr, U.S. retailers closed 5,864 shops.
That was a fairly miserable quantity, however right here we’re in April 2019 and we have now already surpassed it. The next comes from CNN…
This yr, US retailers have introduced that 5,994 shops will shut. That quantity already exceeds final yr’s whole of 5,864 closure bulletins, in line with a latest report from Coresight Analysis.
As soon as once more, you’ll be able to’t blame this on Web commerce. Foot visitors was rising for fairly some time, however now what we’re seeing is completely in keeping with an financial slowdown.
Sadly, this could possibly be just the start. Actually, one knowledgeable quoted by CNBC expects whole retailer closures within the U.S. to hit 12,000 by the top of 2019…
“I anticipate retailer closures to speed up in 2019, hitting some 12,000 by yr finish,” Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight, mentioned.
If that occurs, we are going to shatter the outdated yearly report by about 4,000.
We’re within the early innings of America’s “retail apocalypse”, and it will get a lot, a lot worse.”
Chuck Once more… Brother are you able to spare a dime? That’s all I may consider once I was studying this text… However to not fear, people… The financial system is doing simply tremendous, proper? NOT!
Currencies at present 4/22/19 American Model: A$.7135, kiwi .6675, C$ .7483, euro 1.1250, sterling 1.2988, Swiss $.9855, European Model: rand 14.1095, krone 8.5008, SEK 9.3045, forint 284.20, zloty 3.8037, koruna 22.8298, RUB 63.99, yen 111.92, sing 1.3565, HKD 7.8444, INR 69.80, China 6.7032, peso 18.79, BRL 3.9257, Dollar Index 97.34, Oil $65.29, 10-year 2.57%, Silver $15.05, Platinum $909.36, Palladium $1,428.54, and Gold… $1,279.30
That is it for at present… Yesterday was not solely Easter, but it surely was additionally the birthday of my longtime buddy, Frank Trotter! And I am unable to neglect that former colleague, Mike Harrel additionally celebrates his birthday on 4/21! Nicely, my beloved Cardinals discovered a strategy to take 2 of three from the Metropolitans this previous weekend… And our Blues! WOW! After the terrible manner they performed within the first half of the season too! Hockey playoffs are so about who’s wholesome, with good goalie play, and on a roll come the playoffs, it would not matter what you probably did within the common season, if you do not have these Three issues, you can begin packing your golf golf equipment! And the Blues… properly, they’ve these Three issues going for them… I am simply saying… Todd Rundgren takes us to the end line at present together with his track: It Would not Have Made Any Distinction… That track was featured within the film: Nearly Well-known, a few rock band within the early 70’s… (I lived that life!) I hope you’ve a Marvelous Monday, and can Be Good To Your self!